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1. Phantom opens prediction markets to eligible US users
Phantom, the crypto wallet widely used on Solana, has begun offering prediction markets to eligible users in the United States through an integration with the regulated exchange Kalshi. Customers can trade contracts tied to cryptocurrency prices, sports and other real-world events without leaving the wallet app. The contracts are CFTC-regulated event contracts, and the launch is being rolled out gradually across states.
The product marks a notable step for a wallet that built its reputation on token swaps and collectibles. Prediction markets let participants buy and sell contracts that pay out depending on whether a stated event happens, and the price of a contract is often read as the crowd's estimate of the probability. Placing that feature inside a self-custody wallet puts it in front of an audience that already holds digital assets and is used to trading on a phone.
Phantom described the offering as a way for users to take positions on markets ranging from digital asset prices to sporting outcomes, all inside one interface. The company says it is starting with eligible users and will adjust access as the rollout proceeds.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that oversees derivatives markets. Its contracts are structured as yes-or-no questions that settle at a fixed value, which is why the exchange and the agency describe them as event contracts rather than bets. Phantom, for its part, is a non-custodial wallet, meaning users hold their own keys, and the Kalshi integration is among the first times it has offered a product governed by US derivatives law.
Linking the two companies therefore combines a crypto-native distribution channel with a regulated trading venue. For Kalshi, the wallet provides access to users who are already comfortable with digital dollars. For Phantom, the exchange supplies the compliance infrastructure that would take years to build independently.
2. How do the Phantom Kalshi prediction markets work?
Phantom's markets work through a split of responsibilities. Kalshi handles customer verification, account management and the execution of trades, while Phantom supplies the access point through its app. In practice, the wallet acts as the front end, and the regulated exchange remains the party that approves users and runs the markets.
Among the contracts on offer are short-term Bitcoin (BTC) price markets that settle every 15 minutes. Contracts that resolve so quickly give traders a way to express a view on very near-term price direction, a use case that resembles options and futures trading more than the traditional election-style markets associated with the category.
Users can fund trades with Phantom Cash balances held in the CASH stablecoin. Using a dollar-pegged token for funding keeps the experience close to the way the wallet already handles payments, and it avoids the need to move money through a separate bank link in the app for every trade.
A 15-minute contract is a useful example of how event markets differ from spot trading. A trader who buys a contract on whether Bitcoin will be above a given price at the end of the window is not buying the asset itself. The contract settles at a fixed amount if the statement is true and at zero if it is false, so the maximum loss is the price paid and the maximum gain is known in advance.
3. What the Predict tab offers
Access runs through a new Predict tab inside the wallet. Availability varies by state and by market category, so not every eligible user will see every contract. This reflects the patchwork nature of US regulation of event contracts, where federal and state authorities have not agreed on where the line falls.
Inside the tab, users can view live market data, sports scores and discussion around individual markets. Trades are placed through an interface designed to resemble a token swap, a layout Phantom customers already know. By borrowing a familiar design, the company aims to make buying a contract feel like any other action in the wallet.
The design choice also hints at the strategy behind the launch. Wallets compete for attention and transaction volume, and adding a high-engagement category such as sports and short-term price markets can keep users active inside the app rather than sending them to a separate exchange.
Live scores and market discussion serve a similar purpose. They give users context for the price of a contract without sending them to other sites, and they keep attention on the wallet during events that unfold over hours, such as a game, rather than a single moment of decision.
4. The regulatory footing behind the launch
The integration follows relief granted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in March. That no-action relief allows Phantom to connect users to regulated markets without registering as an introducing broker, subject to a set of conditions. A no-action position is a statement that agency staff will not recommend enforcement if the stated conditions are met, and it is not a formal rule or a license.
That distinction matters for how durable the arrangement is. Relief of this kind depends on the company continuing to operate within its terms, and it can be revisited if the agency's approach changes. For now, it gives Phantom a documented basis for linking its users to Kalshi's markets while leaving the exchange itself responsible for the regulated activity.
The structure also explains why Kalshi performs the know-your-customer checks. Because the exchange is the registered venue, it carries the obligation to verify who is trading, and Phantom avoids taking on that function itself.
Relief of this type is common in financial regulation. Agencies use it to let new business models operate while they study their effects, and companies receiving it generally have to meet requirements on disclosure, customer handling and recordkeeping. Phantom has not been described as exempt from the rules; it has been given a defined path to follow.
5. Why are prediction markets facing legal pressure?
The launch lands while prediction markets are under growing legal challenge in the United States. On Monday, the CFTC sued Utah after the state contested Kalshi's event contracts under its gambling laws. The case turns on whether federal oversight of derivatives takes precedence over state rules that treat certain wagers as gambling.
The question is central to the industry. If courts find that regulated event contracts are derivatives under exclusive federal jurisdiction, exchanges such as Kalshi can offer them nationwide through partners. If states prevail, the contracts could be restricted or banned in some places, and distribution through apps such as Phantom would shrink accordingly.
Phantom's decision to launch with state-by-state availability is consistent with that uncertainty. By limiting access where legal conditions are unsettled, the company can proceed in friendlier jurisdictions while the disputes work through the courts.
Utah's argument rests on a long-standing principle that states regulate gambling within their borders. The federal government's position is that contracts traded on a registered derivatives exchange fall under the Commodity Exchange Act, which gives the CFTC primary authority. Courts have not settled how those two ideas fit together for sports and event contracts, so the dispute is likely to be argued for some time.
6. What this means for crypto wallets and traders
For the crypto industry, the integration is another sign that wallets want to become broader financial apps. Self-custody wallets began as tools for storing and sending tokens, then added swaps, staking and payments. Prediction markets extend that pattern into a category that has attracted significant trading interest and, increasingly, regulatory attention.
For users, the practical considerations are familiar ones. Event contracts can lose their full value if the outcome goes the wrong way, and very short-dated markets such as the 15-minute Bitcoin contracts move quickly. Traders should also remember that eligibility and available markets depend on where they live.
The arrangement also shows how crypto firms are using regulated partners rather than building their own licensed venues. Phantom gains a product without taking on the full burden of becoming a regulated exchange, and Kalshi gains distribution to a large base of crypto users.
There is also an educational element for newer users. A prediction market price is a probability estimate shaped by who is trading, and it can be wrong, especially in thinly traded markets. Contract prices also reflect liquidity: if few participants are willing to take the other side, positions can be harder to exit at a favorable price.
Wallet-based access also changes the funding path. Because balances are held in a dollar stablecoin, users can move between trading and other wallet activity without converting through a bank account, which shortens the time between deciding to trade and placing the order.
7. What to watch next
The most important development to follow is the dispute between the CFTC and Utah, because its outcome could shape where products such as Phantom's can operate. Further state challenges to Kalshi's contracts would add to that pressure, and each ruling will help clarify how far federal authority reaches.
Phantom's rollout is the second thing to watch. The company says availability will vary by state and by market category, so the list of states and contracts is likely to change as the launch continues. The conditions attached to the CFTC relief will also determine how far the wallet can expand its offering.
Finally, user demand will indicate whether prediction markets suit a wallet audience. If traders adopt the Predict tab in large numbers, competing wallets and exchanges are likely to pursue similar partnerships, and the regulatory debate over event contracts will reach a wider group of crypto users.