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1. Crypto liquidations and Bitcoin near $75,000
Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $74,559 on Monday, November 9, up 0.7% on the day, after touching its lowest level in more than two months. The bounce followed about $1.2 billion in crypto liquidations over 24 hours, while US stocks rallied and oil fell. Traders now look to Tuesday's October inflation report for direction.
The price is back at levels last seen in early August, a month in which Bitcoin gained 25%. That history changes how the $75,000 mark reads: during the summer rally it was a waypoint on the way up, and it is now a level that investors are watching from above as the price slips.
Bitcoin's recent range has been wide. It climbed from roughly $57,700 to $87,350 and then fell back toward $75,000, an early dip on Monday reaching $73,667. With the weekly candle still open, the final close of the week had not yet been set.
2. Why are US stocks rebounding while Bitcoin stalls?
US equities rose on Monday as oil prices fell. By 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the S&P 500 was up 1.9% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.2%. Brent crude dropped 4.3% to about $94 a barrel, easing one source of pressure on inflation expectations.
Bitcoin did not follow the rally. Instead it hovered near $75,000 after the forced selling in derivatives markets earlier in the session. Nvidia shares slid, which unsettled technology investors, and the weakness in that stock has been one of the factors weighing on risk appetite across markets.
The divergence shows how the crypto market was digesting its own deleveraging. Equities benefited from lower energy prices, while Bitcoin traders were still recovering from a wave of liquidations and waiting for the next macroeconomic data point.
3. What is the inflation report and why does it matter?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the October consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday. CPI measures how much households pay for goods and services, and it is one of the main data points the Federal Reserve weighs when setting interest rates.
The release follows a jobs report that came in stronger than expected. That data pushed traders to price in roughly an 80% chance that the Fed raises rates by a quarter point in December. A rate hike, rather than a cut, would be a reversal that tends to weigh on assets that benefit from easy money, including Bitcoin.
A hotter inflation reading would strengthen the case for a December increase, while a cooler number could weaken it. Either result may therefore trigger sharp moves in both stocks and crypto on Tuesday.
4. How big were the crypto liquidations?
CoinGlass data showed $1.2 billion in liquidations across crypto markets over 24 hours. Of that total, about $1.04 billion came from long positions, which are bets that prices will rise. Bitcoin accounted for $324 million, and nearly 87% of that amount was longs.
A liquidation occurs when an exchange closes a leveraged position because the trader can no longer cover losses with the collateral posted. Forced closures of long positions involve selling, which can push prices lower and trigger further liquidations, a chain reaction that often magnifies a decline.
The wave of selling helped drive Bitcoin to its weakest level in more than two months. The partial recovery on Monday suggests that much of the forced selling may have run its course, although the next move still depends on macroeconomic news.
5. What does Bitcoin's weekly chart show?
On the weekly chart, $74,400 is the first area where buyers may step in. The price traded at $74,685 on Monday, just above that level. A weekly close below it would put $72,550 in view, followed by the region near $69,000 around the 200-week exponential moving average.
The 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) sits near $78,250, while the 200-week EMA is around $69,790. An EMA gives more weight to recent prices, so the shorter one reacts faster to changes. Bitcoin is trading below the faster average, and the gap between the two has narrowed considerably.
The long-term ordering of the averages still points to an uptrend, but the narrowing gap raises the possibility of a death cross, in which the shorter average falls below the longer one. Traders often treat such a crossover as a bearish signal, although it comes after the price move rather than predicting it.
6. Which indicators are signaling a trend?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 47.8. The RSI measures the speed of recent price changes on a scale of 0 to 100, and a reading near the midpoint indicates a balance between buyers and sellers. This one leans slightly toward sellers but is far above 30, the level traders typically call oversold.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 21.9. The ADX measures the strength of a trend regardless of its direction, and readings below the commonly used threshold of 25 suggest that the trend is not strong. The directional indicators within it give buyers a slight edge.
Taken together, the indicators describe a market without a decisive trend. Momentum has cooled but has not collapsed, which fits a price that is consolidating after a sharp fall rather than one in free fall.
7. What price levels could matter next?
On the upside, the first zone where sellers may appear is near $76,040. Beyond it lies the 50-week EMA around $78,250. A move through that average would put $80,360 in play, with the prior rebound high near $87,350 beyond.
On the downside, the sequence is $74,400, then $72,550, then about $69,000. These levels come from technical analysis of the weekly chart, which reflects how traders have behaved around certain prices before, and they are not forecasts.
Prediction-market odds mentioned alongside the data gave a 52% chance that Bitcoin would settle between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 10, consistent with a market waiting for news.
8. How leverage amplifies crypto price swings
Leverage lets traders control a position larger than the capital they put up. A trader using borrowed funds can magnify gains when the market moves in their favor, but losses are magnified in the same proportion, and the exchange will close the position automatically once the collateral falls too low.
Because so many long positions were open, the drop toward $73,667 was enough to force a large number of them closed at once. Each forced sale adds to selling pressure, which can push the price through further liquidation levels. The $1.04 billion in long liquidations shows how heavily the market had been positioned for rising prices.
After such a flush, the market is typically left with fewer leveraged positions. That can reduce the risk of another cascade in the short term, because the most fragile positions have already been closed, although it does not by itself provide a reason for prices to rise.
9. How macro data feeds into Bitcoin prices
Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to expectations about interest rates. When investors expect borrowing costs to rise, safer assets such as government bonds offer better returns, and money tends to leave speculative assets. Higher rates also make leverage more expensive, which can discourage the borrowed buying that fuels crypto rallies.
That helps explain the attention on a possible December rate hike. A quarter-point increase would signal that the Federal Reserve still regards inflation as a concern, and the market is currently assigning it a probability of about 80%. If the CPI data pushed that probability higher, it would deepen the pressure on assets that depend on easy financial conditions.
Oil prices play a role as well. Brent crude fell 4.3% to about $94 a barrel on Monday, and lower energy costs can ease inflation pressure over time. Even so, a single day's decline in oil does not settle the question of what the October inflation figures will show.
10. What to watch on Tuesday and which price levels matter
Bitcoin's journey over recent months frames the current debate. It rose from about $57,700 to $87,350, a gain of roughly 51%, and then gave back a large part of the advance, falling to the mid-$70,000s. That round trip leaves the price between two important markers: the 200-week EMA near $69,790 below and the 50-week EMA near $78,250 above.
Moving averages of this length are slow and follow long-term trends. Weekly closes above the 50-week EMA would indicate that buyers have regained control of the medium-term trend, while closes below the 200-week EMA would suggest that the longer uptrend itself is in question.
At present the price sits between the two. That placement matches the muted readings from the RSI and ADX, and it explains why the market is described as being in limbo while it waits for fresh information.
The October CPI release is the key event. A figure that confirms the strength shown in the jobs data would reinforce expectations of a December rate hike, which traders currently price at about 80%.
Beyond the data itself, traders will be watching the weekly close relative to $74,400, the direction of Nvidia shares and the pace of new liquidations. Any of these could set the tone for risk assets in the days that follow.
Traders will also compare Tuesday's figures against the strong jobs data, since the two reports together shape how confident the market is about the Federal Reserve's next step.
For now, Bitcoin is holding just above a support area after a sharp flush of leveraged positions, with the inflation report likely to decide whether that area holds.