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1. Bitcoin short-term holders deposit $3.6 billion in BTC, nearly all underwater
Bitcoin short-term holders sent roughly 47,300 BTC to exchanges at a loss over a 24-hour period, against only about 1,100 BTC moved at a profit, CryptoQuant data shows. The combined 48,500 BTC, worth about $3.6 billion at a price near $74,000, arrived as Bitcoin (BTC) slid toward the low $70,000s in November 2026.
The data comes from CryptoQuant's profit-and-loss chart for short-term holders, which separates coins sent to exchanges below their acquisition price from those sent above it. The gap between the two figures is stark: for every coin deposited in profit during the period, dozens were deposited at a loss.
That imbalance has drawn attention because exchange deposits are often the step that comes before a sale. When recent buyers move coins onto trading platforms while sitting on losses, it raises the possibility that a wave of selling could follow, adding pressure to a market that is already under strain.
The figures matter beyond their headline size. A single day in which recent buyers move tens of thousands of coins to exchanges while sitting on losses is a direct window into investor psychology, showing how a portion of the market is responding to the decline in real time rather than through survey answers or price action alone.
2. What counts as a short-term holder?
A short-term holder is generally defined by CryptoQuant as an investor who has held their Bitcoin for less than 155 days. The cutoff is designed to separate recent market entrants from longer-term investors who have held through multiple price cycles.
This group tends to be the most reactive part of the market. Short-term holders bought relatively recently, often at higher prices, and they are usually the first to feel the pain of a sudden reversal. When the value of their holdings drops below what they paid, some respond by cutting their positions to avoid deeper losses.
For that reason, analysts watch short-term holder behavior as an early indicator of stress. A surge in loss-making transfers from this group suggests that recent buyers are losing patience, while a quiet period can indicate that they are willing to wait out volatility.
3. Exchange deposits are not the same as sales
An important caveat applies to the figures. CryptoQuant's chart measures transfers to exchanges, not completed sales, so it cannot show how much of the deposited Bitcoin was actually sold.
Investors move coins onto exchanges for a range of reasons. Some may want to trade Bitcoin for other tokens, others may post it as collateral for loans or derivatives positions, and some may use exchange-based services that require the coins to be held on the platform.
Even so, a deposit made while the coin is worth less than its purchase price narrows the options. If the holder does sell, the loss becomes permanent. That is why heavy loss-making inflows are read as a potential source of selling pressure, even though the data itself stops short of confirming that selling took place.
Exchange flow data has become a standard tool for on-chain analysts precisely because blockchains make these transfers visible. Every deposit into a known exchange wallet can be observed and measured, which allows firms like CryptoQuant to estimate both the volume of coins arriving and the price at which those coins were last acquired. The limitation is that what happens after the coins land on the platform, inside the exchange's own books, is not recorded on-chain.
4. Two large waves of underwater deposits in November
CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha highlighted two distinct surges of loss-making exchange deposits in an analysis published on November 11. The first came on November 3, when 50,790 BTC moved to exchanges below its acquisition price. The second followed on November 10, with 46,060 BTC deposited at a loss.
On November 10, transfers made in profit totaled only about 1,700 BTC, Taha said. That works out to roughly 27 BTC arriving at a loss for every 1 BTC sent in profit, a ratio that underlines how lopsided the flows have become.
The pattern is notable for what it lacks. In a typical market pullback, some of the coins flowing to exchanges come from investors locking in gains made during an earlier advance. In this case, the deposits are overwhelmingly coming from holders who are underwater, rather than from profit-taking.
The near repetition of the two spikes, a week apart, also suggests that the selling impulse is not a one-off reaction to a single bad day. Instead, it points to a recurring response among recent buyers each time the price tests lower levels, with large groups choosing to act at roughly the same moments.
5. Bitcoin short-term holders losses near the deepest levels since July
Loss-making transfers from short-term holders are not new. A similar pattern has repeated over several months, with spikes appearing each time the price swung lower and then recovered before falling again.
What distinguishes the latest episode is its scale. The most recent spike sits close to the deepest readings visible on the chart since July, suggesting that the current round of capitulation by recent buyers is among the most intense of the past several months.
Repeated bursts of this kind indicate that a meaningful portion of recent demand came in at prices that the market has since failed to hold. Each time the price falls back, a fresh group of buyers finds itself in the red, and some of them decide to move their coins toward the exit.
6. Why is Binance seeing inflows from recently moved coins?
Binance is receiving a growing share of deposits from coins that had moved on-chain only days earlier, a sign that recently active Bitcoin is being routed to the world's largest exchange. A separate CryptoQuant chart groups Binance deposits by how long each coin had been sitting since its previous on-chain movement.
On November 1, coins last moved between one day and one week earlier accounted for 3,290 BTC of Binance deposits. By November 3, deposits from that same age group had jumped to 8,114 BTC, a sharp increase in just two days.
Taha also pointed to activity from slightly older coins. On November 9, Binance received 1,925 BTC from coins that had last moved between one and three months earlier.
These age groupings come with their own limitation. They measure the time since a coin last moved on the blockchain, not when its current owner bought it, so they cannot be used to determine the purchase price or holding period of the person making the deposit.
7. How the two data sets fit together
The Binance figures and the short-term holder profit-and-loss data measure different things, and it is worth keeping them separate. The Binance chart covers a single exchange and tracks how recently coins moved on-chain. The profit-and-loss charts cover short-term holders sending coins to exchanges more broadly.
Read together, however, they tell a consistent story. Across the market, recent buyers are moving coins to trading venues while their positions show losses, and on Binance specifically, a significant share of incoming Bitcoin has only just been moved. Both point to an active, short-horizon group of holders repositioning during the decline.
Neither data set, on its own, proves that a large sale is underway. But the overlap between broad loss-making deposits and concentrated activity on the largest exchange is the type of signal that traders tend to treat with caution.
8. From $85,000 highs to the $73,000 range
Bitcoin has dropped from late-September highs above $85,000 to a range of roughly $73,000 to $74,000. That move explains why so many recent buyers are now underwater.
Consider an investor who bought at $80,000. With Bitcoin trading at $74,000, that position carries a paper loss of about 7.5%. Moving those coins to an exchange and selling would turn that paper loss into a realized one, which is exactly the type of decision the current exchange data captures.
The losses are not confined to the most recent buyers. Glassnode has identified about 4 million BTC held by longer-term investors that was acquired at prices between $85,000 and $118,000. That supply represents another pocket of underwater holdings sitting above the current price.
This matters for the market's structure. When large amounts of supply sit at a loss above the current price, any recovery tends to run into holders who are eager to get out at break-even. That overhead supply can cap rallies until it is gradually absorbed by new buyers, a process that often takes time and steady demand.
9. What to watch next
The key question for the market is whether the heavy flow of loss-making deposits translates into sustained selling or fades as the most nervous holders finish exiting. A decline in loss-making transfers from short-term holders would suggest that capitulation among recent buyers is running its course.
Exchange balances offer one way to track that. If coins deposited at a loss remain on exchanges without being sold, or begin flowing back out to private wallets, it would suggest that some of the feared selling did not materialize. If balances keep climbing alongside falling prices, it would point to continued distribution.
The roughly 4 million BTC that Glassnode has tied to purchases between $85,000 and $118,000 is likely to remain a factor if prices recover. Holders who bought in that range may look to reduce exposure as the price approaches their entry levels, which could slow any rebound.
In the near term, traders will be watching whether Bitcoin can hold the $73,000 to $74,000 area it has occupied after the slide from its late-September peak, and whether deposits to Binance from freshly moved coins continue at the pace seen in early November.