1. A Milestone That Comes With Fine Print
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index — a composite metric built from ten on-chain indicators covering blockchain activity, investor profitability, and liquidity conditions — has climbed to 50 for the first time since Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 in October 2025. The reading of exactly 50 means that precisely half of the index's underlying components are currently registering bullish conditions while the other half remain bearish — a mathematical even split that CryptoQuant describes as neutral territory. The shift out of pure bearish positioning is the first such transition in the current downturn cycle, coming after the index spent months in deeply negative territory as Bitcoin declined from $126,000 through a low near $60,000 in early 2026. For bulls, the move to neutral is evidence that on-chain market health is meaningfully improving. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno did not present it that way.
2. What the Index Measures and Why It Matters
The Bull Score Index is designed to aggregate signals across multiple dimensions of Bitcoin's on-chain ecosystem rather than relying on any single metric. Its ten component indicators span the breadth of what on-chain analysts typically examine: the volume and composition of blockchain activity, whether current holders are sitting on unrealized profits or losses, inflows and outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges, miner behavior and revenue, stablecoin supply relative to Bitcoin market capitalization, and measures of liquidity depth. Each component is converted to a binary bullish or bearish reading, and the ten readings are averaged to produce the composite score. A reading above 50 indicates more bullish than bearish components; below 50 indicates more bearish; exactly 50 indicates even division.
The index's value is not in any single reading but in tracking the transition between states. A sustained move above 60 — which the index labels as the beginning of a bullish zone — has historically preceded or accompanied meaningful Bitcoin price advances. The current reading of 50 places the index on the threshold between bearish and bullish, describing a market in transition rather than one with confirmed directional momentum.
3. The March 2022 Warning Moreno Attached
Moreno's observation about what happened the last time the Bull Score Index reached neutral territory is the most important element of the data. In March 2022, the index climbed to 50 after a period of bearish readings — the same transition being observed in April 2026. That March 2022 neutral reading held for approximately one week before the bear market resumed and Bitcoin prices collapsed sharply. The subsequent decline took Bitcoin from approximately $45,000 in March 2022 through to a low below $16,000 during the FTX collapse in November 2022 — a fall of more than 60% from the point at which the index had briefly suggested improving conditions.
The implication of the comparison is explicit: a neutral reading on the Bull Score Index does not confirm that the bear market has ended. It confirms that conditions have improved sufficiently for the balance of on-chain indicators to shift from majority bearish to exactly even — a transitional state that can either continue improving toward bullish territory or reverse back into bearish conditions if the underlying dynamics that drove the recovery do not sustain. In 2022, they did not sustain. The question for 2026 is whether the specific conditions supporting the current recovery — sustained institutional ETF inflows, reduced short positioning in futures markets, geopolitical de-escalation — are more durable than whatever drove the brief 2022 improvement.
4. The Broader On-Chain Picture
The Bull Score Index's move to neutral is one of several on-chain indicators that have been sending mixed signals about the current cycle's positioning. A separate analysis this week noted that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score — which measures whether Bitcoin's market capitalization is historically elevated or depressed relative to its realized value — sits at approximately 0.5, and has not gone negative in the current cycle. The MVRV Z-score has historically dipped below zero at confirmed bear market bottoms, and its failure to do so during this cycle's drawdown is interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the broader bear market bottom may not yet have been established.
Against these cautionary signals sits the observation from analyst Michaël van de Poppe that Bitcoin has reached approximately -1.5 sigma from its long-term trend — the proportional level that has historically marked the end of corrections in prior cycles. At that sigma level, Bitcoin has historically generated average gains of 100% to 140% over the following twelve months. The divergence between different analytical frameworks reflects genuinely ambiguous on-chain conditions: the recovery from February and March lows is real and measurable, but whether it constitutes the end of a bear market or a bear market rally within a continuing downturn depends significantly on which indicators one weights most heavily.
5. What Needs to Happen for the Index to Confirm Bullish
For the Bull Score Index to move from neutral to genuinely bullish territory — a reading above 60 — at least six of its ten component indicators would need to register bullish conditions simultaneously. That requires not just a sustained price recovery but a broadening of the on-chain improvements across dimensions that include investor profitability (which only fully recovers when prices move above the cost basis of a critical mass of holders), exchange flows (which need to show sustained net outflows indicating accumulation rather than distribution), and miner revenue (which remains pressured by the post-halving reward reduction and network difficulty). A move above 60 on the index historically has been associated with the kind of broad market health that sustains extended price advances rather than brief relief rallies.
The current price level of approximately $78,000 — sitting near Strategy's average cost basis of $75,527 and near the Traders' On-Chain Realized Price of $76,800 — places Bitcoin in a zone where significant proportions of both institutional treasury holders and short-term traders are near their acquisition cost. Sustained moves above $80,000 and toward higher levels would begin to put more of those holders in profit, which is one of the mechanical prerequisites for the Bull Score Index to advance from 50 toward the 60-plus range that would constitute a bullish signal.
6. Why the Warning Matters More Than the Headline
The headline reading — Bull Score exits bear territory — is the more marketable version of what CryptoQuant's data actually shows. The more accurate characterization is that on-chain conditions have recovered enough to stop being definitively bearish, without yet being definitively bullish. That distinction is consequential for how traders and investors should interpret the indicator. A move from deeply bearish to neutral does not justify the same level of confidence as a move from neutral to definitively bullish. The 2022 parallel is not presented as a prediction but as a reminder that the same transition occurred before, lasted briefly, and was followed by a significantly worse outcome. The appropriate response to neutral on the Bull Score Index is watchfulness, not celebration — monitoring whether the next incremental move is toward 60 or back below 50.