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1. Bitcoin Fed decision: where the market stood on October 28
Bitcoin (BTC) gained almost 2% on Wednesday, October 28, and traded just under $81,000 during Asian morning hours, as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day. Most large cryptocurrencies advanced with it, and Zcash (ZEC) was the strongest of them, rising 8% to about $1,320.
The move followed a soft weekend. Over the previous two days bitcoin had slipped to nearly $79,000, a level that sits only a couple of percent below where it was trading on Wednesday. The recovery therefore returned the asset to the upper part of the range in which it has been moving, rather than carrying it into new territory.
Pre-announcement sessions of this kind tend to be defined by caution. Traders who hold positions through a central bank meeting accept the risk that the statement or the press conference will push prices in either direction, and many choose to reduce exposure or hedge instead. The fact that bitcoin rose into the meeting, rather than drifting lower, suggests that buyers were comfortable carrying some risk into the announcement.
For readers following the price, the numbers are straightforward. Bitcoin sat just under $81,000 on Wednesday morning in Asia, after a pullback toward $79,000 over the weekend, and the Fed's announcement was scheduled for later the same day. Between those two reference points lies the narrow band in which the market has been trading, and the decision was expected to show whether it breaks out of that band or stays inside it.
2. Which cryptocurrencies moved the most?
Smaller and mid-sized tokens outpaced bitcoin across the board. Zcash led with its 8% advance, which carried it back above $1,300 after the selloff on Monday had pushed it lower. Hyperliquid's HYPE token followed, climbing nearly 5% to about $81.
XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) each gained roughly 3%. Ether (ETH) rose 2% to just above $2,350, and Solana (SOL) added about 2% to trade near $102. BNB gained 1%, while TRX, the token of the Tron network, rose by less than 1%.
When the broader group of large tokens outperforms bitcoin, analysts often read it as a sign of improving appetite for risk. Bitcoin is generally the first asset investors buy when they return to the market, and money moving further out along the risk curve into other coins is usually associated with greater confidence. A single morning is a thin basis for concluding that such a shift is under way, but the pattern was consistent across nearly every major name on the list.
The size of the gains also varied widely. Bitcoin's advance of close to 2% was matched by ether and Solana, while the moves in BNB and TRX were close to flat. That spread shows the rebound was not uniform, and that the strongest buying was concentrated in a few assets, with Zcash the clearest example.
Zcash's rise was notable for another reason. The token had given up ground in Monday's selloff, and its 8% gain on Wednesday returned it to a price above $1,300, which recovered part of that loss within two sessions. Hyperliquid's HYPE, up nearly 5%, was the only other large token to finish the morning with a gain of that magnitude.
3. What did Galaxy say about the bear market?
Galaxy, the digital asset financial services firm, told investors in a note published the day before that the bear market in bitcoin most likely ended in June and that the asset has since entered an accumulation phase. The note advised that it was time to accumulate bitcoin, and the rebound on Wednesday followed it.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, set out the view. He said the market is in a period of accumulation of the kind that has preceded every earlier advance in bitcoin. In his assessment, the low for this cycle was set in June, when bitcoin traded below $58,000.
An accumulation phase is the stretch after a prolonged decline in which prices stop falling and move sideways while long-term buyers gradually build positions. Selling is largely exhausted by that point, and the people still willing to trade are mostly those with a longer time horizon. The phase is usually quiet and unspectacular, which is why it is typically recognized only in hindsight, once prices have begun to rise decisively.
4. Why does the 50-week moving average matter?
Thorn pointed to three developments in support of the call. The first was that bitcoin has moved back above its 50-week moving average. The second was that selling pressure has been lighter than before. The third was that U.S. debt has been rising.
A moving average smooths price data by averaging a fixed number of past periods. The 50-week version is built from the last 50 weekly closes, so it reflects the longer-term trend rather than short-term noise. When an asset trades above it, the longer-term direction is generally considered to be improving. When it trades below, the trend is considered weak. Regaining the line is therefore treated by many technical analysts as a signal that the damage of a downturn is being repaired.
The note was a confident one, particularly given that bitcoin has struggled to hold the $80,000 level. Recent sessions have shown the price pushing toward that threshold and then falling back, and the weekend dip to nearly $79,000 was another example. A call that the bear market is already over rests on the idea that those failures are temporary and that a sustained break higher is a matter of time.
It remains a forecast, and the Galaxy note is one firm's reading of the data. The moving average, the lighter selling and the rise in U.S. debt are the factors that support it, and the market's response over the coming weeks will test whether buyers agree.
5. Why is crypto going up ahead of the Fed meeting?
Crypto prices rose on Wednesday because buyers stepped in after the weekend dip, and a firm view from Galaxy that the market has already bottomed gave them a reason to act. Positioning before the Fed decision also played a role, as traders prepared for the central bank's message.
The immediate trigger for many investors was the Galaxy note. A research head at a large firm arguing that the downturn ended months ago can influence sentiment, particularly when the price has been stuck just below a round number such as $80,000. The note gave participants who were already inclined to buy a framework for doing so.
The mood in equities was also constructive. Technology stocks extended their climb, and cryptocurrencies, which often trade in the same direction as growth shares, moved higher alongside them. That link is not constant, but in periods when investors are favoring risk, the two markets tend to rise together.
Taken together, these factors explain the direction of the move but not its durability. The gains were measured, with bitcoin up almost 2%, and they came before the single event most likely to determine where prices go next.
6. What are traders watching at the Fed's press conference?
Attention centered on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the press conference that follows the rate decision. Traders were listening for any signal that the central bank could raise interest rates in December, a possibility that has weighed on the outlook for risk assets.
The mechanism is straightforward. A rate increase raises borrowing costs across the economy and makes safer, interest-bearing assets such as government bonds more attractive. That typically draws capital away from riskier holdings, a category that includes cryptocurrencies. Even a hint that a hike is under consideration can be enough to move prices, because markets trade on expectations well before decisions are made.
For that reason, the tone of the press conference can matter as much as the rate decision itself. A chair who sounds open to tightening could unsettle the buyers who lifted prices on Wednesday, while language that points to patience would likely be welcomed. The market had not yet heard either version when bitcoin reached its highest level of the morning.
This explains the restrained nature of the rally. Investors were willing to buy, but few were prepared to commit heavily before they heard what the Fed chair had to say.
7. What comes next for bitcoin?
The first test is the Fed's announcement and the press conference with Warsh later on October 28. How the chair addresses the possibility of a December rate increase is likely to set the tone for risk assets in the sessions that follow.
On the chart, the level to watch is $82,500. A daily close above it could signal that the recovery is gaining momentum, according to the technical threshold highlighted in the market commentary. A daily close is the price at the end of a trading day, and analysts prefer it to intraday highs because it filters out brief spikes that reverse before the day ends.
Bitcoin has repeatedly stalled around $80,000, so a decisive close above $82,500 would mark a clear step beyond the zone where it has been struggling. Failing to reach it, or slipping back toward the weekend low near $79,000, would leave the range intact and keep the debate over Galaxy's accumulation thesis open.
For now, the evidence is limited to one rebound of almost 2%, a broad advance across the major tokens and a research note arguing that the worst is over. Whether those developments mark the start of a lasting recovery will depend largely on what the Federal Reserve says and how the market responds in the days ahead.