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1. Bitcoin ETF outflows reach a second day
Bitcoin ETF outflows continued on Monday, November 2, as U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds lost $399 million for a second straight session, according to Farside Investors. Bitcoin (BTC) dipped to about $76,300 during the European morning on November 3 before recovering to roughly $76,900, a gain of 0.2% since midnight UTC, while Binance customers withdrew a net $4.72 billion.
BlackRock's IBIT led the redemptions, shedding $405 million, its largest one-day outflow since June. Because IBIT is the biggest product in the category, its flows tend to set the tone for the whole group, and a figure larger than the daily total shows that other funds took in some money while IBIT lost far more.
Ether (ETH) rose 0.6%, and the DeFi index (DFX) gained 0.5%, while the CoinDesk Memecoin Index slipped 0.8%. Moves across altcoins were mixed rather than pointing in a single direction.
Spot bitcoin ETFs hold the actual coin on behalf of shareholders, so net redemptions mean fund issuers must sell or release bitcoin to meet withdrawals. Daily flow figures are therefore watched as a gauge of how institutions and advisers are treating bitcoin, and two consecutive outflow days show that the pause in demand is not a single-session event.
The size of the move should be kept in proportion. A $399 million day is meaningful for sentiment, yet the dip to $76,300 was modest, and the recovery to about $76,900 shows that selling was absorbed quickly. Price action so far looks like consolidation under pressure rather than a break.
2. How much have Binance customers withdrawn?
Binance customers have pulled a net $4.72 billion from the exchange since it reopened on Sunday, up from $3.64 billion by the end of that first day. The figure measures deposits minus withdrawals, so it understates the gross movement of funds in both directions.
The outflows come in the aftermath of the Binance hack, and fresh incidents have followed. Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin had about $40 million drained from its hot wallets, according to the security firm Hypernative. Hot wallets are connected to the internet to process everyday transactions, which makes them more exposed than offline storage.
Taken together, the withdrawals and the new attacks give traders reasons for caution even without a sharp move in price. Confidence in custody, rather than a change in the bitcoin outlook, is the theme running through the flows.
Exchange balances matter to the broader market because coins held on an exchange are readily available to sell. When customers move assets to private wallets or to other venues, liquid supply on the platform shrinks, though the same withdrawals can also signal that users are worried about the venue itself.
3. What else is moving markets this week?
Outside crypto, risk appetite looks fragile. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1% on Monday as technology shares sold off again, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.3% since midnight UTC. Brent crude gained 1.3% to around $106 a barrel.
U.S. voters went to the polls for the midterm elections on Tuesday, and the chipmaker AMD was due to report results after the close. The monthly jobs report is scheduled for Friday. Each of these events can shift sentiment across equities and, by extension, crypto, which has often traded alongside technology stocks.
Oil near $106 a barrel adds another cross-current. Higher energy prices feed into inflation expectations, which can influence central bank policy and the appetite for risk assets. For crypto, that link is indirect, but it helps explain why a technology-led equity selloff and a rise in crude can coincide with cautious positioning in digital assets.
4. Are traders positioning or just churning?
Derivatives data suggests heavy activity without a clear new bet. Futures volume jumped 51% in 24 hours to $168.1 billion, yet open interest, the value of outstanding contracts, fell 1.63% to $134.9 billion. When volume rises while open interest drops, traders are typically closing and reopening positions rather than adding new exposure, and the analysis reads this as trading ahead of election results and media calls.
Liquidations rose 171% to $382.6 million. Sell-side market orders accounted for 51.12% of taker volume, a marginal tilt toward selling.
For bitcoin, open interest fell 1.20% while price dropped 1.23%, which points to no net money entering or leaving the market. Ether futures open interest dropped 2.18% against a 0.83% decline in price, a pattern consistent with traders closing positions. Ether's cumulative volume delta, which tracks the balance of aggressive buying and selling, is positive, while bitcoin's is negative. Funding rates, the periodic payments between long and short holders, are positive for both and higher than a day earlier.
A few terms help read these numbers. Open interest counts contracts that remain open, so it rises when new positions are created and falls when they are closed. A liquidation occurs when an exchange forcibly closes a leveraged position because the trader's collateral no longer covers losses; a 171% jump to $382.6 million shows that leveraged traders were forced out, although the amount is small next to the $134.9 billion of open interest.
The takeaway is that the market is active but undecided. Volume reflects traders reshuffling ahead of a known event, while the small change in open interest shows little appetite to build large new directional bets before the election outcome is clear.
5. Why is the options market pricing an election premium?
Implied volatility on the nearest-dated bitcoin options climbed to about 51%, from roughly 43.5% on the November 4 expiry a day earlier. Ether's nearest-dated implied volatility is about 59%. Short-term skew, the extra price paid for protection against moves in one direction, remains well above longer-dated levels for both assets, a sign that traders are paying up for near-term insurance around the vote.
The most traded bitcoin option was the November 7 $78,000 call, close to the spot price, after puts led the previous day. Even so, four of the six most traded contracts were still puts. Other heavily traded contracts included the November 27 $75,000 put and the November 27 $100,000 call.
Ether's options tilted bearish: all six of its most traded contracts were puts, led by the November 6 $1,900 put, about 16% below spot.
Implied volatility is the market's estimate of how much an asset may move, derived from option prices. A rise from 43.5% to about 51% on the nearest expiry shows that buyers are willing to pay more for contracts that cover the days around the election. A call gives the right to buy at a set price and a put the right to sell, so a majority of puts among the most traded contracts indicates demand for downside protection.
Because the premium is concentrated in the shortest-dated contracts, it is tied to the event itself. If the vote passes without a shock, such premiums commonly deflate quickly, which is why longer-dated options remain comparatively cheaper.
6. Which altcoins stood out?
Zcash (ZEC) fell 7.57% over 24 hours, the largest decline among the coins tracked, with futures open interest down 6.13% and the most negative cumulative volume delta among major tokens. It later rose 1.2% to around $1,146 after falling about 8% from Monday morning amid a dispute over its community grants program. The NU7 network upgrade is expected this week.
NEAR fell another 0.9%, extending a 7% decline over 24 hours and ranking among the weakest performers in the CoinDesk 100. That came even after its House of Stake governance body voted on Monday to cut the maximum annual issuance rate to 1.6% from 2.5%.
Lighter (LIT) rose 2.3%. Founder Vladimir Novakovski said the perpetual futures venue plans to apply this month to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for registration as a trading venue and clearing house. A filing would only begin a review, not guarantee approval.
Among decentralized finance tokens, Aave gained 1.5% and Uniswap 0.8%, despite a string of attacks since Friday. Funding rates were positive for most coins, with ADA, SUI and NEAR at the top of the range, while HBAR and LINK were the most negative, though only on single exchanges.
7. What do sentiment gauges say?
Sentiment remains subdued. The CoinMarketCap altcoin season index was unchanged at 46 out of 100, and the fear and greed index slipped to 34 from 36, which sits in the "fear" zone. Readings in that range usually reflect investors who are cautious rather than panicking.
Most coins showed negative open-interest-normalized cumulative volume delta over 24 hours, with TRX the most positive and ZEC the most negative, indicating more aggressive selling than buying across the majors.
A fear and greed reading of 34 is a two-point decline from the prior day, so the shift is small, but it extends a period in which investors have leaned defensive. An altcoin season index of 46 sits below the level generally taken to indicate that altcoins are outperforming bitcoin, which fits with the mixed token performance seen on the day.
8. What to watch next
The immediate catalysts are the results of the U.S. midterm elections, AMD's earnings after the close and Friday's jobs report. In crypto, Zcash's NU7 upgrade is due this week, and Lighter has said it will file with the CFTC this month.
Traders will also track whether ETF outflows extend beyond two sessions and whether withdrawals from Binance slow. Those two flows offer the clearest read on whether the recent dip is a pause or the start of a longer retreat.