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1. Why have Bitcoin's violent rallies faded? Thielen's explanation
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, says Bitcoin's run of consecutive double-digit price surges has ended because Wall Street traders and profit-taking whales are now shaping the market. In an appearance on Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets podcast, published November 3, he also forecast Bitcoin (BTC) at $90,000 by year-end, questioned how much ETF inflows reflect real demand, and said Ethereum must do more for its holders.
His central claim is about market structure. Institutional traders who sell call options after rallies, he argues, have made the sharp upward spikes of earlier years less frequent. A call option gives its buyer the right to purchase an asset at a set price, and those who sell such options profit when prices stay below that level, which tends to dampen explosive moves.
The comments are Thielen's analysis and forecasts, not established outcomes, and the figures he cites are his own estimates.
For readers new to the topic, the practical meaning is straightforward. If sellers of options are active after every advance, they tend to add supply of risk near higher prices, which can cap the speed of a rally. Thielen's argument is that this behavior, combined with profit-taking by large holders, is now a visible feature of the market.
2. A new cast of promoters
Thielen is the author of Crypto Titans, a history of the crypto industry. Researching it, he said, led him to see that every market cycle had its own promoters, and that different promoters attracted different kinds of investors.
In his view, this cycle's promoters come from Wall Street. Their followers are accustomed to trading on economic data and Federal Reserve decisions, rather than on the enthusiasm that drove earlier cycles. That shift in audience, he suggests, changes how Bitcoin behaves.
He expects Bitcoin to jump quickly on news and then drift sideways until the next major macroeconomic event. The pattern would make the asset behave more like a traditional macro-sensitive market, with sudden moves around scheduled announcements and quiet stretches in between.
The argument also explains why he sees fewer parallels with past cycles. Retail-driven booms in earlier years were fueled by social momentum, whereas a market dominated by professional traders reacts mainly to scheduled data, policy decisions and positioning. The result, in his telling, is a calmer but more event-driven asset.
3. Who is really buying Bitcoin through ETFs?
Thielen questions how much of the money entering U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds represents directional buying. By his estimate, market makers account for up to half of the $60 billion in net spot Bitcoin ETF inflows he analyzed.
The reasoning rests on how those firms operate. Market makers hold ETF shares to hedge their options trades, so the positions do not necessarily express a bullish view on price. A hedge is a position taken to offset risk elsewhere, which means the holder may be indifferent to whether Bitcoin rises or falls. Thielen's conclusion was that, in the end, those flows were not outright buying.
He based the estimate on a review of Form 13F filings, the reports in which investment managers disclose certain securities holdings. Such filings give a partial view of who owns ETF shares, which is why his figure is presented as an estimate.
Thielen added that the first wave of ETF money also included retail investors who reached the funds through institutions and corporate vehicles. Some of them paid substantial premiums over the value of the underlying bitcoin, a detail that further complicates the reading of the early inflow numbers.
He did not rule out a bigger institutional role. He said he still thinks institutions could come in, and that some sovereign wealth funds could as well.
The distinction between hedged and directional demand matters for anyone reading ETF flow headlines. A large inflow figure can look like a strong vote of confidence in Bitcoin, yet if a significant share belongs to firms offsetting other positions, the net effect on price pressure may be smaller than the total suggests.
Thielen's estimate does not say that ETFs are unimportant. It says that the headline number should be read with care, and that the identity of the buyer determines how durable the demand is.
4. Can Bitcoin reach $90,000 by year-end?
Thielen still forecasts $90,000 by the end of the year. He expects the road to include a drop first, into the mid-to-high $70,000s.
Bitcoin has already traded in that region. It fell to about $76,100 on Friday after the $6.3 billion hack at Binance, and it ended October down 7.3%, according to Coinglass data cited in the interview coverage. The move gives some weight to the first half of his scenario, although the second half remains a forecast.
He compared the recent recovery with early 2023, when Bitcoin climbed from around $20,000 to $30,000. In both cases, he said, investors doubted the rebound and waited for the next dip as an entry point. His summary of the mood was that everyone seemed to have missed the rally, so everyone now wants to buy again.
It is worth keeping the distinction between description and prediction in mind. The fall toward $76,100 and the October decline are recorded facts, while the targets for the weeks ahead are the analyst's judgment and may not materialize.
5. How do Federal Reserve rate decisions fit in?
Thielen links the path to $90,000 partly to how much further the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. In September the Fed lifted its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points, to a target range of 3.75% to 4%.
At its most recent meeting, on October 28, the central bank held rates steady in a split vote. Two officials favored another quarter-point increase. The Fed's statement said inflation remains elevated and left the door open to further rises.
Thielen expects one more hike by December, followed by a more cautious stance. He argues that this shift could support a year-end rally in Bitcoin. Rate expectations matter to crypto prices because higher rates raise the appeal of safer, interest-bearing assets and tend to weigh on speculative holdings, while a pause can relieve that pressure.
The relationship runs through expectations as much as through actual decisions. Markets often move before a rate decision, based on what traders think the central bank will do, so a perception that tightening is nearly over can lift prices even before the Fed formally changes course.
6. Why does Thielen favor Bitcoin over Ether?
Thielen expects Bitcoin to outperform Ether (ETH). He has been bearish on the asset for more than a year, and his reason is about where the value generated by Ethereum activity ends up. He argues that too much of it flows to layer-2 networks, which are separate systems built on top of Ethereum that process transactions more cheaply.
He described Ethereum as a valuable utility that nobody wants to pay for. Making layer-2 networks cheaper has been a deliberate part of Ethereum's development, but cheaper transactions can weaken the investment case for ETH.
The mechanism is the fee burn. Ethereum destroys the base fees that users pay, removing those coins from circulation. Supply shrinks when burns exceed new issuance to validators, so lower fees mean less ETH is destroyed and the supply-reduction argument is weaker.
His view is a comparison of investment cases, not a judgment on the technology. Ethereum can remain widely used and still be a weaker holding if usage does not feed back into demand for the token. That is the gap he wants the network to close.
7. The highway analogy and the Hyperliquid example
Thielen compared Ethereum to a highway. His point was that everybody wants the road to be empty so they can drive fast, but nobody wants to pay for its upkeep. Applied to the network, the image describes users who want cheap and fast transactions while the asset's holders receive little in return.
As a contrasting case, he cited Hyperliquid, where trading activity funds token demand. The platform's assistance fund converts trading fees into its HYPE token, which is then burned. In that design, more usage translates directly into purchases of the token.
Thielen said he wants Ethereum to build a stronger link between network usage and financial returns for token holders. Without it, he suggested, the asset will struggle to compete with alternatives where the connection is explicit.
The comparison highlights a design question that crypto networks face: how to share the value created by activity between users, developers and token holders. Thielen's answer favors mechanisms in which the holder is directly rewarded for usage.
8. What to watch next
The first test of Thielen's outlook is the expected dip into the mid-to-high $70,000s, followed by any recovery toward $90,000. Investors will also watch the Fed's next move; Thielen expects one more rate rise by December.
A second question is whether ETF flows continue to be driven by hedging activity or begin to reflect longer-term allocations from institutions and sovereign funds, as he says they could. His estimate that market makers account for up to half of recent inflows suggests that headline flow figures may overstate genuine demand.
Because the thesis combines market structure, ETF mechanics, monetary policy and token economics, readers can test each part separately. Price action will show whether rallies remain muted, filings and flow data will show who holds the funds, and the Fed's December decision will show whether the rate path matches his expectation.