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1. Bitwise Sees a Path Back Above $100,000
Bitwise, the crypto asset manager, said on October 18 that bitcoin (BTC) could climb back above $100,000 before 2026 ends, a view that sits well apart from trading desks expecting inflation and elevated interest rates to cap gains. Bitcoin changed hands near $81,500 at the time, so the bullish case implies a rise of roughly 23%, while a more cautious forecast points to $85,000 to $95,000.
The analysts quoted in the debate agree on more than the headline split suggests. They broadly accept that institutional participation, clearer rules and worries about government debt give bitcoin a supportive backdrop over the long run. Where they part ways is timing: whether the weeks ahead can deliver a decisive breakout, or whether macroeconomic pressure keeps the price inside a range until the calendar turns.
That timing question matters because bitcoin has behaved less like an isolated digital asset and more like a barometer of rate expectations this year. Each new inflation print and every signal from the Federal Reserve has fed directly into positioning, and the forecasts below differ mainly in how much weight they give to that pressure.
Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, expects the market to emerge from the current period of uncertainty at a higher valuation. "We believe bitcoin ends the year higher, potentially above $100,000," he said. His argument rests on three tailwinds: steady buying through exchange-traded funds and corporate balance sheets, demand for hard assets as inflation, rising debt and currency debasement worry savers, and clearer regulation that lowers the perceived risk of owning crypto. In his words, these forces "significantly outweigh the potential headwinds."
2. Why Is Bitcoin Struggling Against Macro Pressure?
Bitcoin has struggled mainly because monetary policy has moved against it all year, according to Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at LO:TECH, a London-based crypto trading and market data firm. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point in September, and markets currently price roughly a 75% chance of another increase in December. "This will continue to weigh on bitcoin," McCarthy said.
Higher rates tend to hurt assets that pay no yield, because safe alternatives such as short-term government securities become more attractive. Bitcoin offers no interest or dividend, so its appeal relies on expected price appreciation, and that case weakens when borrowing costs rise and liquidity tightens.
Fresh inflation data released on October 14 did little to ease the concern. Consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month, while core prices, which strip out food and energy, rose 0.3%. Gasoline accounted for more than half of the headline increase. That detail matters for the outlook, since fuel costs can reverse faster than broader price pressures if oil retreats.
McCarthy's base case therefore sits at $85,000 to $95,000 into year-end. In his view, a move beyond $100,000 would need a clear change in rate expectations, with the market shifting from pricing a December hike to expecting a pause. Lower oil prices and easing inflation would be the likeliest triggers for that shift.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, pointed to a tension in the economy itself. Persistent inflation pushes the Fed toward tighter policy, yet employment is weakening, which argues for support. If prices cool, the central bank gains room to respond to the softer labor market, and that would help bitcoin. If inflation stays hot, policy is likely to remain restrictive and the pressure on the asset would continue.
Rasmussen acknowledges the same hurdles. He expects volatility around a possible rate increase in late October and around the U.S. midterm elections in November, and he concedes that a breakout would be difficult against that backdrop. He sees an upside to the uncertainty, though: it could give investors a chance to build positions before sentiment improves.
3. How Do Rate Expectations Reach the Bitcoin Price?
The link runs through opportunity cost and liquidity. When the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark rate, yields on Treasury bills and money market funds rise with it, and investors can earn a return with little risk. Capital that might otherwise chase growth in volatile assets is then more likely to stay in cash-like instruments, which tends to reduce demand for bitcoin and other risk assets at the margin.
Expectations matter as much as decisions. Markets price the likely path of rates well before each meeting, so a shift in the probability of a December hike can move prices even when the Fed itself does nothing. That is why the analysts quoted here keep returning to the same set of indicators: consumer price readings, oil prices, labor market data and the odds that futures markets assign to the next policy move.
The inflation figures illustrate how fine the balance is. A monthly headline increase of 0.6% is large by recent standards, yet the core reading of 0.3% and the fact that gasoline explained more than half of the headline gain suggest that part of the surge could fade if energy costs fall. Traders watching for a policy pause are effectively betting on that scenario.
Employment adds a second variable. Weakening hiring would usually push the central bank toward easing, but entrenched price pressure makes that harder to do. Butterfill's observation about this conflict explains why bitcoin has had trouble holding rallies: each improvement in the labor data can reinforce the case for tighter policy, while each sign of cooling prices must compete against fears about growth.
Rasmussen's argument runs somewhat against this logic. He treats the macro uncertainty as temporary and the structural drivers, such as fund purchases, corporate treasuries and regulatory clarity, as durable. If he is right, a period of choppy trading would simply be the cost of waiting for those forces to dominate. If McCarthy is right, the rate path will continue to set the ceiling until inflation relents.
4. What Does the Derivatives Market Signal?
Derivatives positioning suggests the market is leaner than it was earlier in the year, which cuts both ways. Luca Invernizzi, a senior derivatives trader at Laser Digital, the crypto subsidiary of Nomura, expects bitcoin to remain a macro trade whose direction follows longer-dated Treasury yields rather than crypto-specific news.
Invernizzi described the recovery from the summer lows as unconvincing. He cited thin trading volume, fading inflows into exchange-traded products and slowing corporate purchases as signs that conviction is limited. At the same time, he said most of the leverage has already been flushed out of bitcoin, with speculative excess migrating into smaller tokens, often called altcoins.
McCarthy added detail on how traders are positioned. Crowded bullish bets are less common than before, and funding rates on perpetual futures, the periodic payments that keep those contracts anchored to spot prices, are at or below zero. That means traders are not paying a premium to hold long positions. He noted that August's rally came mostly from traders closing bearish bets, not from fresh long positions, which leaves less fuel for forced selling if prices fall and more room for a squeeze if they rise.
A short squeeze occurs when traders who bet against an asset are forced to buy it back as the price climbs, accelerating the move. Invernizzi identified a possible trigger: "A clean break above $90K for BTC could trigger another round of short covering," he said.
Options pricing tells a similar story. Implied volatility, the market's expectation of future price swings, is near its lows, and options lean toward downside protection. Invernizzi sees that as an opening for buyers of upside call options, which allow traders to position for a rally without purchasing the underlying coin and therefore at a capped cost.
5. Citi and CoinShares Point to Longer-Term Demand
Beyond the near-term argument, several analysts highlighted structural improvement across the industry. Peter Christiansen of Citi wrote in a research note earlier in the week that the total crypto market capitalization grew from about $2.1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion during the third quarter. Institutional flows into exchange-traded funds turned positive, and activity improved across exchanges, stablecoins and supporting infrastructure.
Citi also observed a change in what investors are watching. Attention is moving away from token prices and toward companies working in tokenization, custody, stablecoins and settlement. The bank added that regulatory progress is continuing even though the Clarity Act, the U.S. market structure bill, has not advanced.
Butterfill of CoinShares noted that flows into crypto investment products have slowed after $11.1 billion of inflows since mid-July. He reads the pause as a reaction to uncertainty rather than evidence of weaker fundamentals, but he cautioned that sustained gains would need renewed buying.
He also raised government finances as a possible source of long-term demand. Higher Treasury yields have usually been bad news for bitcoin, but that relationship could change if investors begin to treat elevated yields as compensation for fiscal risk, a situation in which hard assets can benefit. "Our bias is towards higher prices over the medium term," Butterfill said.
6. Why Do the Forecasts Differ So Much?
Part of the gap comes from time horizons and from the questions each analyst is trying to answer. A research head at an asset manager that builds products around bitcoin naturally focuses on adoption, flows and the long arc of demand. A trading firm focuses on positioning, volatility and the next few policy meetings. Both perspectives can be accurate at once, and the forecasts diverge mostly because year-end is close enough for the short-term factors to matter.
The ranges also differ in how much they require to go right. McCarthy's $85,000 to $95,000 band needs little more than the status quo, with bitcoin edging higher from about $81,500. A move above $100,000 demands a break through $90,000, a reversal in rate expectations and a return of buying from funds and companies, all within roughly ten weeks.
Investors reading these forecasts should note that none of the analysts expects a collapse. Even the more cautious view sees prices above current levels, and the disagreement concerns how far and how fast the rise could be.
7. What Happens Next for Bitcoin?
The next tests arrive quickly. A possible Fed rate increase in late October and the November midterm elections are the two events Rasmussen identified as likely sources of volatility, and the December policy meeting, on which markets lean toward another hike, follows soon after.
On price levels, Invernizzi singled out $90,000 as the point where a decisive break could force short sellers to cover, while McCarthy's range of $85,000 to $95,000 frames the more conservative expectation. The $100,000 mark would require, in McCarthy's reading, a clear turn in inflation and rate expectations.
Rasmussen remains the most optimistic voice. "Once the market churns through this period, we expect bitcoin to rerate significantly higher," he said. Whether the rerating arrives before year-end or slips into 2027 is the question dividing analysts, and the answer will likely depend on inflation readings, central bank decisions and whether fund and corporate buying returns after the recent slowdown.